Mid Season Recap


At the halfway point, so much is clear- we know what we know, and we know what we don't. Enough teams have raced each other that I'm going to make my best attempt to cross analyze each classification because unless a team is located in NWA, they probably haven't raced their top competition. I should preface this article that I spent the previous four years coaching at Mountain Home and have worked hard to stay unbiased in my writing about young men and women's performances. I'm doing my absolute best to give everyone equal notoriety, while still providing some entertainment value and quality content. I also taught high school math, so expect some typos!

Please remember, any name mentioned is that of a teenager, not an adult. They run for the passion of the sport and not college scholarships. The sport of cross country is incredibly coach driven, maybe more so than any other sport. You can't just throw talent out on the field and win. 

These young men and women must be developed both mentally and physically in order to succeed, so on occasion, I praise the coaches and hope to have the opportunity to interview some of them in the future.

 

 

1A Girls 

 

The 1A classification is going to prove to be Abbey Linville's to lose. Abbey is a tenured racer who finished 2nd in the 1A/2A division last year. She's won 5 races in her career and 2 this year, so she should be comfortable in the lead of a state championship. She also benefits for a 125-second gap between her and the #2 ranked girl, newcomer Ashlyn Floyd from Kingston, and though gaps tend to tighten as the season's near the end, that's about as big of a gap as there is to overcome. If Abbey stays healthy and gets to the line in one piece, she sure appears the runaway favorite.  

 

On the team side, only four 1A teams have raced this year. Kingston, who didn't run at last year's state meet, looks like the best team at the halfway point. Their 23:33 average is 85 seconds better than #2 Northwest Arkansas Classical Academy. If NWACA could find an underclassman or a basketball player in their school that could fill in front of their #4, they'd have a shot. Moving their #4 to their #5 would change their 1-5 split from 6:34 to 3:12, and then we've got a race. Personally, I can't help but wonder if a team decides only to run their state meet and challenge Kingston for the trophy.

 

1A Boys

 

The individual race appears to be a three-way race between Joseph Garay of Hermitage, Ryan Kotoucek of NWACA, and Josh Cooper of Kingston. Garay is the most experienced of the two, the fastest this year, and the fastest returning runner. His PR of 18:02 is 30 seconds better than Kotoucek's, but Kotoucek lays claim to a slightly quicker 800 and 1600 PR. That means if he can somehow make up for 30 seconds of early season fitness, he will be a threat late in the race. Sophomore Josh Cooper of Kingston has run four times this year and managed to improve in every race, which is a rare feat. His 18:53 PR is quite a bit behind the other two, but he's already nearly 2 minutes ahead of where he began the season. He will be a runner to watch.  

Kingston is also the favorite on the boys' team side, but the water is a lot muddier in the boys' race. 

 

Between Kingston, NWACA, Quachita, and Hermitage, four teams have an average of 20:23-20:44, and according to Milesplit's team rankings, there are currently only 24 points that separate those 4. Ouachita, the defending A/AA state champion, is currently looming in the shadows and has the best #2 man out of those 4 teams. That means it's going to rely much more on who arrives at the meet the sharpest, and experience usually shines at the state meet, which could hold back some of the younger teams and newer programs. Just like goldilocks and the three bears, your porridge can't be too hot or cold on state meet day; it has to be just right!

 

2A Girls

 

One disappointing thing about this year's state meet is the split-up of 1A & 2A classifications. I imagine some 1A teams want a chance to win a state title, and I respect that, but there are very few teams currently registered, and it greatly waters down the class. Katelyn Provence is the favorite, but because of the split, we won't get to watch a Linville-Provence showdown. Provence will have a much more difficult road to face; Taylor Hooten of Quitman has been a staple competitor in the class going on three years. Hooten, only a junior, has 18 cross country races under her belt, including a 6th place and 4th place finish at two state meets, while Provence only has one race. Provence nearly taking down Lineville may show that only a couple races are all she will need, but it still adds a significant question mark. Ali Looney from Parkers Chapel will be another runner to watch.  She finished directly behind Hooten at last year's state meet and is the only senior ranked in the top 10 of 2A. Looney also notched a win on her belt already this season at El Dorado last Saturday.  

 

Quitman is the defending team champion, and they look to repeat with three runners ranked ahead of anyone else's #1. Their 23:34 team average is respectable, and they have a full team of 7, so they can fill any gaps if someone gets hurt, which is a huge luxury not ever team in smaller classifications have. Mansfield will look to be their closest competition, but at 26-49, they will have to bring their A-game on race day.  

 


2A Boys

 

On the boys' side, Jacob Tyburski is the midseason favorite to win, but not by a lot. Though he is the only runner to break 17, doing it twice in 16:24 and 16:52, respectively, Tyburski is trailed by two excellent runners in Justice Neufeld and Josh Tibbs. Tyburski was 2nd in 2018 but appeared to have missed the meet last year for injury or another undisclosed reason. Neufeld is only the 4th returner (Garay was lost to classification split), but it doesn't take much research to realize he's a much more consistent runner than he was last year, with only 5 seconds separating his three 5k's this season. Tibbs, the defending state champion, has a 1600m PR 1 second behind Neufeld's of 4:45, and cross country history has proven time and time again that some people just run better the stakes are highest. You'll find that no matter how people run in the season, I'm careful to bet against a defending state champion.  

 

According to Milesplit the meet is St. Joseph's to lose unless Haas Hall Bentonville can find a way to field a full team. They are currently projected to win 26-63 with 6 guys faster than Quitman's 3. Last year's runner-up team, Quitman, has the smallest split of 1:34 but is slightly lacking in firepower up front unlike St Joseph and Haas Hall.

  

3A Girls

 

The 3A girls' race appears to have 3 midseason contenders for the individual title. Juliah Rodgers, the defending state champion, currently has the fastest time of the 3. The course Rodgers ran her 20:19 on, Mountain Home, is hardly a fast course. However, the other two runners hot on her tail, Joyce Ferguson of West Fork and Maria Grano of Waldron, are anything but long shots. Ferguson has already raced 5 times this season and has won 3 races. 

Grano, #3 returner, shares a 1600 PR with Rodgers of 5:50, which should make her considered a threat to Rodgers 3A reign. Rarely do you get a second chance for a different result, but Grano and Ferguson will have time to decide exactly how they want to beat Rodgers. Ferguson, the lone senior of the group, will be running like it's her last state meet.  

 

On the team side, defending champion Waldron will face stout competition from West Fork, with last year's runner-up Jessieville appearing to be unable to field a full team early on. 

Both West fork and Waldron have virtually equal #1's, West Fork is better at #2, and Waldron will have the better 3-5. For Waldron to challenge, their #1 & #2 will have to have their best days of the season.

 

 

 

3A Boys

 

This race represents one of the most anticipated individual races of the year. Connor Jackson of Manila currently has the fastest time of the year, with a blazing fast 15:39. Jackson won the Little Rock Classic early in September over a loaded field that included John Sutton, who has been running out of his mind as of recent. Luke Walling is the defending champion and a dominant force who won't fold under pressure, though Walling hasn't raced in a month. His performance at Shiloh Christian was stellar though, finishing behind 15:30 guys Reuben Reina and Jack Williams. Even if he's been hurt, which I doubt, he will still be there when it matters. Let's not forget that he ran 9:37 for 3200m as a sophomore. That's right, AS A SOPHOMORE! 

That puts him up there with legendary Arkansas Alumni Jacob Shiohira, Will Aenchbacher, and Camren Fischer for 5th fastest sophomore on record. I've watched both of these young men run over the years, both coaching against them and enjoying their memorable performances. My message to the fans: get out Thursday on November 5th and watch the race, because a 3A battle like this comes around once a decade or less. Both of the boys are fierce front runners who thrive pushing the pace in Prefontaine fashion.  

 

Episcopal Collegiate is currently the favorite to win the boys' team title. Haas Hall Academy matches up great through 3 but then lacks the depth as EC has six runners ahead of Hass Hall's #4. Defending state champion West Fork put five under 18:10 last year but graduated 3 of those 5. Also, Green Forest doesn't have their usual front-runner, but they've collected a few state championship rings over the years in this class.  

 

4A Girls

 

Thankfully for me, the top 4 girls in this class all raced each other at the Wampus Cat Invitational last weekend, so I don't have to stray too far in the weeds do good analysis. 

 Reese McMillan is the favorite, and she has raced her competition in Maggie Gregory from Pottsville 3 times this season, winning all 3. Gregory cut the gap to 10 seconds last weekend but will have trouble blending in during a much smaller state championship race. Meanwhile, McMillan has been on a tear, running 20:19, 20:43, and 20:40 in reverse order this year. McMillan's teammate, Elise Knight, could challenge, but she would have to far exceed expectations. Considering Valley View is the far and away favorite to win the girls' race, one must assume that the coaches won't be cutting anyone loose to possibly blow-up in the latter part of the race.  

 

Did I mention Valley View was the favorite? Pea Ridge girls are good, really, good, but Valley View has hit the reset button on 4A girl's expectations. With 6 under 22:00 and a 20:51 average, and 4 in front of Pea Ridge's #1, they just need to get to the starting line with their team intact. Still, that's a looming concern for any coach entering championship season, even the most experienced coaches panic about crossing the line in training late in the season. Or I should say, the more experienced a coach is, the more they panic about it because they know how easy "peaking" is to mess up. Also, Harrison girls have won more state titles than I have fingers to count them, and have kept quiet early on.

 


4A Boys

 

Even though he has the 5th fastest time of the year, I still think Jacob Braswell is the favorite in this race. He's the defending champion, and though his time of 17:49 is 20 seconds back of Brit Hawkins, he's proven he knows how to win. Expect Matthew Dunsworth of Clarksville and Levi Schultz of Pea Ridge to be up there in November. Dunsworth, the lone sophomore, is the heir apparent of 4A if he happens to catch the running bug.  Schultz has the fastest 1600m time of 5:04 and the fastest 800m of 2:14, so if he can manage to hang on, he has a chance to hurt some feelings.  

 

Pea Ridge boys are the favorite in this race, and they are another team I hyped up early in my first-week review. Their team average of 18:24 is the fastest by 40 seconds, and Dardanelle has an estimated 124 points to Pea Ridge's 62. Dardanelle benefits from having avoided any of the lightning-fast courses. Defending state champion Huntsville and runner-up dequeen look to be in the middle of rebuilding years, but if they can find a couple more runners, they have a chance at a trophy and another prestigious program in Harrison doesn't have team standings anywhere to be found.  

 


5A Girls

 

I think this is a 3 girl race. Defending champion Marcie Cudworth from MH has the fastest time of the season in 18:40, and has gotten faster every race this year, but track star Macie Cash has too, and I have it on good authority she spent this summer working her tail off in an attempt to win her first state title. Macie is a solid kicker with impressive track speed. 

Then you have sophomore Olivia Pielemeier who came out of nowhere to earn 2nd place at the all-star meet and won the indoor 1600 in 5:25 (an unreal time for a freshman girl). 

This has all the makings of a great race upfront.  

 

Mountain Home girls currently have an early edge over Greenwood and Lakeside, but not by much. Though they have a team average of 20:21, that is only 16 seconds ahead of defending state champion, Greenwood. On paper, they have 3 in front of Greenwoods #2, but that could be very dependent on who has run where. Greenwood only graduated 1 of their top 7, and have a tendency to find some very good freshman. Emerging team Hot Springs Lakeside has largely avoided in-class rivals, and may not be very far behind these two teams.

 

5A Boys

 

This boy's race is a thriller thanks to some much-improved talent. Last year's runner-up, Whit Lawrence, has the fastest time of the class at 15:48, and has broken 16 3 times. He's also matched up against some of the best runners in Tennessee and Missouri, but he's untested in Arkansas. Sophomore phenom Noah Embrey just broke 16 for the first time last weekend, finishing ahead of a punishing Lake Hamilton Trio. Zeke McCain is the top returner of that trio and will hope to lead his Lake Hamilton Wolves to another state title of many Then there is defending state champion Dominic Ward, who is known as a racer who thrives under pressure. Though he has quite a bit more competition this year, talent doesn't go away, and he has won the previous two years.  

 

The team race is the best race of the classification since its inception in 2006. Lake Hamilton has a solid trio under 16:30, and a team average of 16:34. Their 65-second split should scare defending state champion from Mountain Home, who graduated their #3 & #4 runners because a whole lot of LH runners are going to come through the line at once. That being said, Mountain Home finished 15 points behind Tennessee #1 Bartlett while missing their #3 runner. Also, much improved Siloam Springs and Lakeside teams would both be favorites to win many of the earlier years, because a team average around 17:30 used to be all it took to win.

 


6A Girls

 

Rightfully so, the 6A races are the premier event at the state championships. Last year, Ali Nachtigal was the class of the field, but she, unfortunately, hasn't looked the same. As I said about Dominic Ward, talent doesn't go away. It's hard to bet on her, even though I'm out of the loop about her performances this year. Carlton Efurd is one of the 2 or 3 most experienced coaches in the state that is still actively coaching, and I can't help but trust she's in the perfect place. In the meantime, Bentonville's Emily Robinson, last year's 4th place finisher, has the fastest time and a Chile Pepper plate to go with it, running 18:30. Mia Loafman has only lost to Robinson this year, and though just a sophomore, has looked mostly unfazed at the front of races. Then there's senior Mary Margaret Harris of Fayetteville, who has to dream of crossing the line in front of the other 4 runners, and she's got as much of a chance as any. On the track, Robinson has the fastest PR 5:08, which will make her a handful at the end of a race. Madison Galindo, Carson Wasemiller, and Kayla Hurley are longshots, but in the discussion.  

 

Last year Bentonville pulled the upset over Fayetteville, 36-38, and they look like a complete team this year. Their team average from Chile Pepper of 19:06 is 34 seconds ahead, and they have 6 girls who have times faster than Fayetteville's #3. Also, 60 second splits usually win state titles. Fayetteville is the #2 pick behind them, but they've got a little room to make up. When you can pull from the talent at Fayetteville's Jr. High stables, anything can happen. Rogers is the #3 team in the class, but they would have to be hiding a full corral to improve their 2:24 split.  

 

6A Boys

 

The boys' race has 3 real contenders to win. I would rank them Dawson Mayberry, Reuben Reina, and Jack Williams in that order. Mayberry's 15:15 is unreal, but Reina will be hot on his heels if he's 100% at the state meet. I'm not diminishing Reina at all; he's been a pleasure to watch the past three years. On the track, Jack Williams' 9:29 and Reina's 9:28 from their sophomore years are stellar. None of the 3 looks to have especially fast 800 or 1600 times, which means they should all hope the race doesn't go down to the final stretch. Seniors line up the top-5, with John Sutton and Keegan Terrell both sub 16 runners who look to scoop up a chance if someone goes down between now and November, which for the sake of fair competition I hope NEVER happens.  

 

On the team side, Bentonville is the favorite, but Har-ber and Fayetteville look nearly identical. 

Bentonville was lucky to earn the 1-point edge over Fayetteville last week at Chile Pepper, which will leave a bad taste in the bulldogs' mouths. Har-ber, who exploded onto the scene early on, and I really thought they could be the best team in the state after two weeks, aren't far behind, and they will be looking to win their first overall state title in cross country. When three teams are this close, you had better believe that tactics will come into play concerning who will be lucky on championship Friday.